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Since the spring of 2020, there has been a sharp drop in the number of Canadian business leaders who believe Canada is heading into a recession.

TORONTO, CANADA, Sept. 15, 2022 / — In The Business Monitor’s latest poll, published by Modus Research, Canadian executives were asked the likelihood of the Canadian economy falling into recession over the next 12 months . This question was also asked before and at the start of the COVID pandemic.

Full press release available here:
Since the spring of 2020, there has been a sharp drop in the number of Canadian business leaders who believe Canada is heading into a recession. Although national media coverage of the issue has suggested that recession fears are high, they are well below the levels seen at the start of the pandemic.

That said, worries about a recession remain well above pre-COVID levels and are not insignificant.
• Today, 38% of Canadian business leaders think a recession is very likely within the next year.
• Although quite high, this figure is well below the first months of the pandemic. In March and May 2020, 56% and 59% of business leaders, respectively, considered a recession very likely.
• Before the pandemic, high expectations for a recession were only 18%.

These results vary considerably by region. Business leaders in Alberta and the Prairie provinces expect a recession much more than elsewhere in Canada.
Regional percentages indicating that a recession is very likely:
• Grasslands: 57%
• AB: 55%
• Ontario: 36%
• British Columbia: 30%
• Quebec: 29%
• Maritimes: 24%

It is important to recognize what could cause concern about a recession. Canadian business leaders see many risks facing the economy, with household debt, labor shortages and large corporations having too much control over markets topping the list. Concerns about inflation and interest rates are also high. Interestingly, business leaders are relatively indifferent to the Canadian real estate market.
How would you rate each of the following in terms of risks to the Canadian economy over the next 12 months?
(Percentages responding to high risk or the first two boxes.)
• Canadian household debt: 52%
• Large companies control the market too much: 52%
• Labor shortages: 51%
• Inflation: 48%
• Interest rate up: 46%
• Residential real estate market in Canada: 29%

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The survey was conducted from August 19 to September 5 using the Modus Business Panel, Canada’s only probability-based B2B research panel. Since the panel is constructed using random telephone sampling, it is valid to quote the margin of error of this survey. The survey is based on a representative sample of 600 Canadian managers and executives and has a margin of error of +/- 4.0% pts 95 times out of 100. Survey data is weighted by size and region according to latest data from Statistics Canada to help ensure the representativeness of Canadian businesses.

About Modus Research
Founded in 2012, Modus Research is a full-service research agency that provides its clients with actionable insights from Canadian companies based on scientifically representative samples. We are Canada’s B2B search experts.

For more information about this release or The Business Monitor, please contact:
Charlie Graves
President, Modus Research
cgraves at modusresearch dot com

Charles Graves
Modus Research Inc.
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